The last week was one of those weeks where, most of the time, despite the bad results, I didn’t regret my procedure. I have had some bad weeks and a record below .500 in the first half of the season, but I’m going to keep shooting. There is still a long way to go.
I believe I can get back on track this week and take it with me for the rest of the season.
I think the perception of Oregon is still skewed by the victory over the state of Ohio. The Ducks are facing a number of injuries, including the loss of a star running behind CJ Verdale. The passing game, which ranks 90th nationally, is limited to Anthony Brown at QB.
Cal is a better team than his 1-4 record. Cal’s first three losses were against quality opponents and averaged 4.6 points. With an ugly performance against Washington State and a bye week, I expect a lot of effort from an experienced team.
There are also some trends that make me like Cal to cover spreads. The Golden Bears are 18-8-1 against Justin Wilcox’s internal underdog spread, which includes 11-4 points as a road dog. As a double-digit underdog under Wilcox, Cal is 8-3 ATS. Oregon, on the other hand, has only 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games, as a double-digit favorite, with 0-3 this season.
Nebraska was close to a signature victory over Michigan last week. The game star went down, but a late bout allowed Michigan to kick the winning field goal. It’s especially hard to get on the road to sleep at 11am.
Nebraska’s offense is declining in the run-up to the run, and Minnesota’s run defense is ranked 5th in the country. The Gophers are only allowing 77 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per carry. If Husker can’t run the ball, QB puts more pressure on Adrian Martinez to deliver in the passing game. It didn’t go very well in Martinez’s career.
Speaking of pass games, Minnesota has only tried 90 passes this season. The efforts of only three teams in the country are lacking: Army, Air Force and Navy. Minnesota is running behind his third-string but he will still lean on the field game and try to control the ball and limit the assets.
Nebraska is a great team, but I didn’t do well picking short road favorites. Under feels like a safe game.
Select: Under 48 years
Auburn No. 17 at Arkansas
Time: Afternoon | Line: Arkansas-4.5 | Total: 53.5
In addition to that weird Georgia State game, I’ve been impressed by Auburn this season. Brian Hersin’s group went to the wires in Penn State, won a comeback at LSU and had some great moments against the formidable Georgia defense last week.
Auburn played Georgia harder than Arkansas. Auburn actually moved the ball and he should have scored more than 10 points. The tigers had some expensive drops and they couldn’t turn into red zones. They couldn’t run the ball over Georgia, but they will have a lot of success against Arkansas.
After playing Penn State and LSU, Auburn will not be intimidated by this road environment. I will take points.
Select: Auburn +4.5
Miami in North Carolina
Time: 3:30 p.m. Line: UNC-7.5 | Total: 62.5
I think this line is a bit more of a reaction to the exit of the Miami QB D’Eric King. After a slow start, Tyler Van Dyke played well in the Kings’ place against Virginia. Miami should have won that game, but missed the chip shot field goal in the buzzer.
Miami is slowly integrating some of its youngsters into more important roles on both sides of the ball, and I love this place for Hurricanes after Bye Week. North Carolina is very inconsistent and her defense has not played well.
Select: Miami +7.5
No. 19 BYU at the boiler
Time: 3:30 p.m. Line: Baylor -6.5 | Total: 50.5
I was amazed at how well the boilers played from Year 1 to Year 2 of the Dale Aranda era. A big part of that change, in my opinion, was Aranda’s decision to hire Jeff Grimes as the offending coordinator. There was soot from BYU, added intrigue to this matchup.
Boiler flew to West Virginia last week, but I think it was a reflection of the WVU rather than how good Baylor’s offense is. Boiler started the year with a win over three fierce teams, and then averaged just 5.2 yards per game in games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State.
I think there may be enough balers in BYU to put it in numbers. BYU lost to Boise State last week, but many of Boise State’s points came from BYU’s mistakes. Cougar spun it four times, went down twice, made nine penalties and was fierce in the red zone. BYU will be fine this time.
Select: BYU +6.5